Bonn Cherry Blossom Forecast 2025-2026

About This Forecast

This prediction uses an XGBoost machine learning model trained on 11 years of historical weather and bloom data from Bonn (2015-2025). The model analyzes over 60 weather features to predict cherry blossom timing.

Weather Data Source: Daily meteorological data is obtained from the Meteostat API, which aggregates weather observations from Station 10517 (Bonn Friesdorf). The data is updated daily with the latest measurements.

Bloom Data Source: Historical cherry blossom bloom dates were manually sampled from kirschbluete-bonn.de, the official source for Bonn's cherry blossom information, providing accurate ground-truth data for model training.

📊 Model Features ▼

Temperature Features: Daily min/max/average temperatures, monthly aggregates
Chilling Requirements: Accumulated hours below 7.2°C (winter dormancy)
Growing Degree Days: Heat accumulation above 10°C baseline
Seasonal Patterns: Winter, spring, summer, and fall averages
Precipitation: Monthly rainfall and snow accumulation
Rolling Averages: 7, 14, 30, 60, and 90-day temperature trends
Photoperiod: Day length calculations based on latitude
Previous Year Influence: Fall and winter conditions from previous year

🌡️ Data Collection ▼

Station: Bonn Friesdorf (ID: 10517)
Location: 50.7°N, 7.1°E
Update Frequency: Daily at 06:00 UTC
Parameters: Temperature, precipitation, wind, pressure, snow
Historical Range: 2015-2025 training data
Quality Control: Automated validation and gap-filling by Meteostat

🌸 Historical Bloom Data ▼

Data Source: kirschbluete-bonn.de
Collection Method: Manual sampling of official bloom reports
Years Covered: 2015-2025 (11 years of observations)
Data Points: Bloom start dates, peak bloom, and end dates
Location: Heerstraße and Breite Straße in Bonn Altstadt
Validation: Cross-referenced with local observations and photos